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21
General Discussion / Re: 16,000 Police to Protect and Serve Catalonia
« Last post by pelletfarmer on September 21, 2017, 02:21:04 pm »
All that pain and effort just to exchange one tyranny for another. Do the Catalonians actually believe they'd be better off, let alone actually free, if this new government could break off from Spain?  They may well have excellent intentions, but the system would be the same and the corruption would follow immediately - if it isn't already firmly in place. Just a different slate of folks taking in the swag.

Exactly right and that's the inevitable problem with state secession here, as if that could ever happen.

I keep thinking that if peeps see it over and over, like maybe a thousand times, they'll wake up.  Though I'd be more confident in that wish if there were even a drop of evidence that most peeps will ever wake up.  Funny, I never heard of that problem with the African slaves of old; pretty sure they knew they were slaves.  Maybe they're genetically smarter.
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General Discussion / Re: Step Back and See
« Last post by DiabolusDementis on September 21, 2017, 11:36:49 am »
Personally, I'm in the "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst" camp. While I do have a decent 401k, I know better than to depend on that completely. I hedge my bets with precious metals, usually purchased at the dips. (We are currently in a "dip") I also speculate with rare coins when I have the funds to do so.

I know and agree with the credo- "It's better to get out a year early than a day late". BUT......... I'm going to let it ride. I may move some things around to what I perceive as "safer" in the short run, but I will not be pulling out. At least not yet anyways.

I do "mostly" understand the articles (I did read them). I read stuff like that everyday. What can I say? I'm a glutton for punishment, I guess. ;D

I've been trying to stay away from ZeroHedge though. To many pop-ups and crap. My computer doesn't like that site. :o


Edit- Just wanted to add that I am not advocating my investment style to anyone else. And CERTAINLY, get your B's in order before even thinking about investing. 8)
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General Discussion / Re: 16,000 Police to Protect and Serve Catalonia
« Last post by MamaLiberty on September 21, 2017, 09:26:45 am »
All that pain and effort just to exchange one tyranny for another. Do the Catalonians actually believe they'd be better off, let alone actually free, if this new government could break off from Spain?  They may well have excellent intentions, but the system would be the same and the corruption would follow immediately - if it isn't already firmly in place. Just a different slate of folks taking in the swag.
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General Discussion / 16,000 Police to Protect and Serve Catalonia
« Last post by pelletfarmer on September 21, 2017, 07:50:09 am »
"Earlier this week Spanish police seized control of Catalonia’s finances, seeking to ensure that separatist politicians could not spend further public funds on the referendum, and conducted raids across Catalonia to confiscate ballots and campaign materials from printing shops and delivery companies."

"The police raided the offices of the Catalan regional government early Wednesday and arrested at least 14 people, including Josep Maria Jové, secretary general of economic affairs. The arrests were not expected, but hundreds of mayors and other officials in Catalonia had been warned that they would be indicted if they helped organize a referendum in violation of Spanish law."

"Meanwhile, as a sign of the growing hostility and Madrid's intentions to do all that is necessary to block a vote, Bloomberg notes that Spain has hired cruise liners specifically to mount a massive force of 16,000 police in a Catalan port."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/spanish-police-mount-force-16000-catalan-port-raid-government-offices-tensions-mount
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General Discussion / Re: Step Back and See
« Last post by pelletfarmer on September 21, 2017, 07:27:08 am »
Here's one more, DD.  I hadn't seen this when I wrote my comment earlier, but it covers a few of the same points, at least with regard to stocks.  I'm just a layman on these matters, but this is a pro and has some of the data to go along.

"Exactly how many warnings do you need?"  Apparently for many the answer is "infinite."  Too bad there's no infinity.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/exactly-how-many-warnings-do-you-need
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General Discussion / Re: Step Back and See
« Last post by pelletfarmer on September 21, 2017, 07:05:37 am »
Speaking of production DD, this article (from today) may help.  Or, it may just make you dizzy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/metals-massacre-iron-ore-enters-bear-market-copper-collapses-1-month-lows
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General Discussion / Re: Step Back and See
« Last post by pelletfarmer on September 21, 2017, 06:40:07 am »
> Here is an article that I just saw that details why the policy that PF hates so much was the absolute worse thing that could happen.

It was the worse thing that could happen financially, but not for the reason the article implies.  If it were as simple as, say, twice as much "money in the system," then prices would be twice as high.  But of course they're not.

And it's not as simple as "asset prices" that exploded, else assets would all be priced much higher.  Yet again, they're not...check the prices of your assets--your car, your house, your tools--and you'll see they've far from soared like stocks.

Prices depend both on the amount of money denominating them and what's called the velocity of that money...how much it gets churned, used, borrowed and re-borrowed.

Also, you can't rest on stock prices then versus stock prices now.  A big cause of higher stock prices is buybacks by the corporations themselves.  A stock price of X with a million shares outstanding is the equivalent of a stock price of 2X with half a million shares outstanding.  So a stock price on its own tells us nothing; only equity balances (assets minus liabilities) tell us that story.

The actual reasons behind the madness are quite a bit worse and will have a far greater effect than mere "more money in the system."  If it were that, then we could all adjust by just changing the numbers.  But by lowering rates artificially--meaning by edict rather than by market forces--the Fed took the "chase for yield" and removed it from the market judgments of market participants.

The worst victims of the policy were--and remain--savers.  Getting a safe 5-10% return on savings was a piece of cake in 2006; today it's a virtual impossibility.  It's not even possible to quantify this well...it's been such a screw on savers that it's almost surprising they're not out there with tar and pitchforks.  But as it always goes, those who led a "straight" life--producing and putting aside a part of their production for future production--took it in the ass.  Instead of getting 5% super-safe returns, they now dream of getting 1%.  That's a big, big difference and has changed the financial position of an immense number of people.

And then, decent yields being so tough to get, that increases the relative value of corporations since they figure to be the only yield-producers going forward.  That's why stock valuations are at historical highs...there's simply no alternative for yield-chasing savings.

Here's the best way to view it IMO, broadly.  The function of capital markets--in a sane world, I mean--is to direct capital to the most productive functions.  But since production has been all but taken out of the equation, that capital is directed to companies (and governments of course) who figure to return any yield at all.

What this has done is to remove the pricing of risk out of the markets.  That's why it's all so mad...risk is effectively ignored, priced at zero.  Thing is, as everyone will find out eventually, risk has not been removed.  It's still there, but it's not being priced accurately if at all.

One day the negative results of failing to price risk--even though it's there--will blow up.  This doesn't tell us what will happen to prices then, because we don't know what foolish "fixes" our betters will devise.  But we do know what will happen to the underlying value of the financial instruments that represent this foolish mis-pricing of risk...that value will decline toward zero, regardless of the pricing.  At that point, the function of fiat money will cease to exist and we'll see what phoenix rises.

All of this is why it's critical above all else to distinguish between money and wealth.  It's also why the evil bastards doing this want people (and companies, and governments) to borrow, borrow, borrow, and then borrow some more.  This is their way of getting yet more "money into the system" by increasing its velocity.  The hope is that nobody will discover the Emperor--which in the economic realm is production--is naked.

In a way, it's a sensible strategy.  There's plenty of evidence that on these matters, most people will never notice anything.  After all, they haven't yet...not even those savers for the most part.  Effectively that giant flock of sheeple has traded a lifetime of savings in return for "going along" and the safety and security they believe such a decision will yield.

But of course, it won't.  It never does.  They'll gleefully get on the busses and head to the free showers just as they always have. "Oh, what bad breaks befell us but massuh will protect us"...as if their entire lives took place inside a craps table and Govco is a straight dealer.

Those poor sap Jews and Gypsies in Nazi Germany managed to achieve exactly one moment of final awareness...when they looked down in the showers and saw no drains.  Too little awareness, and way too late.

And that in turn is why the only power on Earth that can get us out of this quagmire are those two letters..."No."  Q.E.D.
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General Discussion / Re: Joke of the day
« Last post by MamaLiberty on September 20, 2017, 07:58:45 pm »
Actually, all I have to do to pee my pants is cough at the wrong time, but thanks anyway.  ;D ;D ;D
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General Discussion / Re: Joke of the day
« Last post by DiabolusDementis on September 20, 2017, 03:33:50 pm »
I was just trying to get you to smile. Did it work? :)

 Yes, love. I smile a lot, actually. But you'd probably think lots of what I laugh at is strange. LOL

30
General Discussion / Re: Step Back and See
« Last post by DiabolusDementis on September 20, 2017, 01:32:35 pm »
It's always a good time to turn worthless FRN's into tangible goods. 8)


Here is an article that I just saw that details why the policy that PF hates so much was the absolute worse thing that could happen.

Today the music stops

https://www.sovereignman.com/market-bubble/today-the-music-stops-22415/

Quote
After months of preparing financial markets for this news, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce that it will finally begin shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

I know, that probably sound reeeeally boring. A bunch of central bankers talking about their balance sheet.

But it’s phenomenally important. And I’ll explain why-

When the Global Financial Crisis started in 2008, the Federal Reserve (along with just about every central bank in the world) took the unprecedented step of conjuring trillions of dollars out of thin air.

In the Fed’s case, it was roughly $3.5 trillion, about 25% of the size of the entire US economy at the time.

That’s a lot of money.

And after nearly a decade of this free money policy, there is more money in the financial system than ever before.

Economists have a measure for money supply called “M2”. And M2 is at a record high — nearly $9 trillion higher than at the start of the 2008 crisis.

Now, one might expect that, over time, as the population and economy grow, the amount of money in the system would increase.

But even on a per-capita basis, and relative to the size of US GDP, there is more money in the system than there has ever been, at least in the history of modern central banking.

And that has consequences.

One of those consequences is that asset prices have exploded.

The article is not very long. Please click the link. It's worth the time. The article goes on to outline how specific companies performance compared to what happened to their stock price. Pretty crazy. :o
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